16 Retail Industry Statistics Every Owner Should Know in 2026

We read the latest Census retail and e-commerce release, the National Retail Federation's 2026 forecast, the Census Annual Integrated Economic Survey, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' retail trade data to extract the numbers most useful to retail owners, operators, and researchers.

The first thing the sources show is that "retail industry size" is not one number. A quarterly Census estimate, an annual AIES revenue total, an NRF forecast, and a BLS employment count answer different questions. The figures below keep those definitions visible so that you can use the statistics without accidentally comparing incompatible data.

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Retail trade employer firms generated $7.019 trillion in 2023 revenue

The 2023 Census Annual Integrated Economic Survey reported $7,019,263,779 thousand in sales, value of shipments, or revenue for the national NAICS 44-45 retail trade sector. That is $7.019 trillion when converted from the table's thousands-of-dollars unit.

The same AIES row reported $631.359 billion in annual payroll and 17,422,499 employees. It also reported $2.401 trillion in gross margin, $1.785 trillion in operating expenses, and $4.670 trillion in purchases for resale. These figures give an owner a more useful operating picture than a sales total by itself: revenue is large, but so are the cost bases required to generate it.

This is an AIES measure of domestic private nonfarm employer businesses with paid employees. It is not a measure of every retail transaction or every retail business in the country, and the estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

AIES recorded $1.079 trillion in e-commerce revenue across retail employer firms

The same 2023 AIES retail trade row reported $1,078,898,003 thousand in e-commerce revenue, or $1.079 trillion. Dividing that figure by the $7.019 trillion total revenue produces an e-commerce share of approximately 15.4% for this AIES population.

That 15.4% is a useful derived measure, but it should not be treated as the same statistic as the Census quarterly e-commerce share below. AIES reports annual revenue for employer firms, while Census reports quarterly retail sales estimates using a different statistical program and reporting framework.

Census estimated $326.7 billion in e-commerce sales in Q1 2026

The Census Bureau's seasonally adjusted estimate put U.S. e-commerce sales at $326.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Total adjusted retail sales were $1,929.0 billion, making e-commerce 16.9% of the quarterly total.

The unadjusted e-commerce estimate was $302.3 billion. That lower figure is not a contradiction: unadjusted data preserve seasonal patterns, while the adjusted series is the better number for comparing the quarter with other periods.

E-commerce grew 9.8% year over year versus 3.9% for total retail in Q1 2026

On the adjusted Census series, e-commerce sales rose 9.8% year over year in Q1 2026, while total retail sales rose 3.9%. The published uncertainty for the e-commerce year-over-year estimate was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, compared with plus or minus 0.5 percentage points for total retail.

The unadjusted series showed a similar gap: e-commerce was up 9.7% year over year and total retail was up 4.0%. The practical takeaway is not that every retailer grew at either rate. It is that digital retail was growing faster than the total market in the latest Census quarter, so channel mix deserves to be tracked separately from total sales.

NRF forecasts $5.6 trillion in 2026 core retail sales

The National Retail Federation forecasts 2026 retail sales of $5.6 trillion, up 4.4% from 2025. The forecast is stated in nominal dollars and is produced with an Oxford Economics model. NRF says the average annual growth rate over the previous ten years was 3.6% when the pandemic-disrupted years 2020 through 2022 are excluded.

This is a forward-looking forecast, not an observed 2026 sales total. It is useful for planning, budgeting, and market context, but it should be labeled as a forecast whenever it is quoted.

NRF core retail excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants

NRF's $5.6 trillion forecast uses its core retail definition. That definition excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants. The exclusions matter because a headline that calls this number "all retail sales" would imply broader coverage than the source actually provides.

The same discipline applies when comparing NRF with Census or AIES. Put the source definition, period, and exclusions next to the number. A forecast with a custom core-retail perimeter cannot be treated as a direct substitute for an official category total without reconciling those boundaries first.

BLS counted 15.460 million retail trade employees in June 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 15,459.7 thousand seasonally adjusted employees in retail trade in June 2026. That was 15,467.2 thousand in May, a monthly decrease of 7.5 thousand, and 15,425.5 thousand in June 2025.

This BLS employment series is not supposed to match the 17,422,499 AIES employees reported for 2023. The two numbers come from different programs, reference periods, and statistical scopes. Use AIES when you need an annual employer-firm operating baseline and BLS when you need a current labor-market indicator.

Retail trade had 1.066 million private establishments in Q3 2025

The BLS retail trade data page reports 1,066,341 private-industry retail trade establishments in the third quarter of 2025. The comparable count was 1,070,476 in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In Q3 2025, the series also reported approximately 243,000 gross job gains and 267,000 gross job losses. Gross gains and gross losses are not the same as net employment change: they describe the amount of hiring and contraction taking place across establishments during the quarter.

Retail employees averaged $26.35 per hour and $787.87 per week in June 2026

For all retail trade employees, BLS reported seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings of $26.35 and average weekly earnings of $787.87 in June 2026. Average weekly hours were 29.9. The corresponding June 2025 figures were $25.36 per hour, $755.73 per week, and 29.8 hours.

These are industry averages, not a recommended wage or a typical paycheck for every role. They are useful as a market-level labor cost reference, while a store's own payroll report remains the right source for staffing decisions.

Frontline retail employees averaged $22.20 per hour in June 2026

For production and nonsupervisory employees in retail trade, BLS reported 13,348.4 thousand employees, 30.6 average weekly hours, $22.20 average hourly earnings, and $679.32 average weekly earnings in June 2026.

This series is closer to the labor group many stores think of as frontline operations, but it still aggregates different formats and roles. It should be used as a comparison point, not as a substitute for a retailer's own pay bands, scheduled hours, overtime, benefits, and payroll taxes.

Retail labor productivity rose 4.6% in 2024 while hours worked fell 1.2%

The BLS retail trade productivity table reports a 4.6% increase in labor productivity, measured as output per hour, in 2024. Hours worked fell 1.2%, output rose 3.3%, and unit labor costs fell 1.8%.

Productivity is not the same as sales growth or profit growth. It compares output with labor hours, so an owner should read it alongside labor cost, service levels, customer experience, and the format's sales mix. A productivity gain that comes from cutting hours can have a different operational meaning from one produced by better processes or technology.

Retail salespersons numbered 3.550 million in the latest BLS occupation data

The BLS retail trade occupation data for 2025 counted 3,550,380 retail salespersons, 2,552,720 cashiers, 1,828,300 stock clerks and order fillers, 997,650 first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, and 411,850 customer service representatives.

The mix explains why a single retail wage statistic can hide meaningful differences between selling, checkout, inventory, customer service, and management work. Owners comparing their labor model with the industry should identify which occupations are actually in their store rather than applying the retail average to every employee.

Median hourly pay ranged from $15.90 for cashiers to $23.18 for retail supervisors

The 2025 BLS occupation data reported these median pay levels in retail trade:

These figures are medians, not averages. They also describe occupational pay in the BLS industry data, not an all-in employer cost. Benefits, payroll taxes, recruiting costs, scheduling gaps, and turnover all sit outside the hourly wage shown here.

Retail market size depends on which source question you are answering

The most useful source changes with the question:

The answer is more credible when the source is matched to the question instead of when the largest available number is chosen.

A retail comparison should show the source boundary beside every number

This table puts the main measures side by side. A blank cell means that the named source does not provide that measure in the release used here, not that the value is zero.

Use these formulas to turn retail statistics into operating benchmarks

Published industry figures become more useful when an owner converts them into ratios that can be compared with the company's own data:

• E-commerce share = e-commerce revenue divided by total revenue. The 2023 AIES retail trade row produces approximately 15.4%: $1.079 trillion divided by $7.019 trillion.
• Revenue per employee = annual revenue divided by employees. Use the same source, population, and year for both inputs.
• Payroll per employee = annual payroll divided by employees. This is a broad payroll measure, not total compensation.
• E-commerce growth = current e-commerce sales minus prior-period e-commerce sales, divided by prior-period e-commerce sales. Use adjusted Census data when measuring a trend across quarters.
• Labor cost ratio = payroll divided by revenue. Compare it only when payroll and revenue cover the same business population and period.

The most important control is consistency. Do not divide a quarterly Census sales figure by an annual AIES employee count, or compare NRF's 2026 nominal core-retail forecast with a different source's unadjusted category total, unless the article clearly labels the calculation as an approximation and explains the limitations.

Sources

• Census Bureau: Quarterly retail e-commerce sales, Q1 2026
• National Retail Federation: 2026 retail sales forecast
• NRF: 2026 forecast press release and definition of core retail
• Census Bureau: Annual Integrated Economic Survey overview
• Census Bureau: 2023 AIES main release
• Census Bureau: 2023 AIES data tables
• Census Bureau: 2023 AIES Retail Trade basic data file
• BLS: Employment Situation
• BLS: Retail trade industry data