15 Retail Industry Statistics Every Owner Should Know in 2026

We read the U.S. Census Bureau's Q1 2026 e-commerce release, the National Retail Federation's 2026 sales forecast, the American Customer Satisfaction Index's 2026 retail study, and NRF's 2025 Retail Returns Landscape. The most useful conclusion is not one headline growth number. It is that retail sales, digital channel growth, customer experience, and returns describe different parts of the business.

This article keeps those measures separate. Census figures are completed estimates of U.S. retail sales and e-commerce. The NRF number is a forecast with a defined scope. ACSI figures are survey scores on a 0 to 100 scale. Returns figures are projections and consumer research. Each section identifies the period, universe, denominator, and limitation so the statistics can be reused without overstating what they prove.

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NRF forecasts retail sales to grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026

The National Retail Federation forecasts that U.S. retail sales will grow 4.4% over 2025 and reach $5.6 trillion in 2026. NRF says the forecast was produced with a new forecasting approach developed with Oxford Economics. It is a forward-looking estimate, not a Census measurement of sales already recorded.

The comparison point is useful: NRF says retail sales grew an average of 3.6% per year over the last decade when the unusual pandemic years from 2020 to 2022 are excluded. The 2026 forecast is therefore 0.8 percentage points above that comparison average. Retailers can use the forecast as a planning context, but their own sales plan still needs category, channel, location, and price assumptions.

The NRF forecast covers core retail and excludes autos, gas stations, and restaurants

NRF uses its own core retail definition. The forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. It also presents growth in nominal terms, so the 4.4% figure is not a promise of 4.4% more units, transactions, or customers.

That scope is essential when comparing the forecast with another source. Census total retail sales, Census e-commerce sales, and NRF core retail sales are not interchangeable rows. A source table should label the scope before anyone compares growth rates or adds the values together.

Census estimated $326.7 billion in seasonally adjusted e-commerce sales in Q1 2026

The Census Bureau estimated seasonally adjusted U.S. retail e-commerce sales at $326.7 billion in Q1 2026. The estimate rose 2.7% from Q4 2025, with a published margin of error of plus or minus 0.5 percentage points. Census says the series is adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.

The same release estimated total retail sales at $1,929.0 billion in Q1 2026, up 1.5% from Q4 2025. These figures are useful as a common quarterly denominator because the e-commerce and total retail estimates come from the same Census release and the same period.

E-commerce grew 9.8% year over year while total retail sales grew 3.9%

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Q1 2026 e-commerce sales were up 9.8% from Q1 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Total retail sales were up 3.9% over the same period, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.5 percentage points.

The difference between the published rates is 5.9 percentage points. That is a comparison of growth rates, not a claim that every online retailer grew 9.8% or that online retail captured exactly 5.9 percentage points of physical retail demand. It does show why an e-commerce growth rate should be reported beside, rather than instead of, the total retail growth rate.

E-commerce made up 16.9% of total retail sales in Q1 2026

Census reported e-commerce at 16.9% of total retail sales in Q1 2026. The ratio is consistent with the two adjusted dollar estimates: $326.7 billion divided by $1,929.0 billion is approximately 16.9%.

The denominator matters. This is the share of retail sales represented by e-commerce in the Census series, not the share of all consumer spending, all shopping occasions, or all retail customers who used a digital touchpoint. A shopper can also research online and purchase in a store, so channel share and customer behavior are not the same measure.

Seasonal adjustment changes the Q1 e-commerce quarter-over-quarter story from growth to decline

The adjusted Census e-commerce estimate increased 2.7% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. The not seasonally adjusted estimate was $302.3 billion, down 17.2% from Q4 2025. Both numbers refer to the same quarter, but they answer different comparison questions.

The unadjusted quarter-over-quarter fall reflects the strong seasonal effect around the holiday period. On an unadjusted year-over-year basis, Q1 e-commerce was up 9.7% and total retail was up 4.0%. Retail analysis should not mix an adjusted numerator with an unadjusted denominator, or describe the seasonal Q4-to-Q1 movement as a change in underlying demand without explaining the adjustment.

ACSI scored specialty retailers 80, general merchandise 79, online retailers 79, and supermarkets 78

The ACSI Retail and Consumer Shipping Study 2026 reports scores on a 0 to 100 scale. Specialty retailers scored 80, up 1% from the prior study. General merchandise retailers scored 79, also up 1%. Online retailers remained at 79, while supermarkets fell 1% to 78.

These are customer satisfaction benchmarks, not sales growth rates or market-share estimates. They can help an owner compare the experience pressure in different retail formats, but a local store should not treat a national format score as its own customer satisfaction result. A local post-purchase survey, review analysis, or customer feedback program needs its own sample and question wording.

Convenience, pickup, and app reliability reached 85 in the ACSI experience benchmarks

ACSI reported three leading customer experience benchmarks at 85: convenience of store hours, ease of the pickup process, and reliability of the mobile app. The figures make the customer journey more specific than a single overall satisfaction score. They point to access, fulfillment, and digital reliability as separate experience dimensions.

The number 85 is still a survey benchmark, not a universal service standard. A retailer should connect these experience measures to local operational fields such as opening hours, pickup wait time, order accuracy, app failure rate, and customer complaints. Without those local measures, the national score explains what customers value but not which operational change will improve a particular store.

Specialty retail pickup scored 87 for ease and 86 for fulfillment accuracy

Within the specialty retailer results, ease of the pickup process scored 87 and accuracy of order fulfillment for pickup scored 86. The speed of order readiness score was 84. Quality of the mobile app, reliability of the mobile app, and website satisfaction each scored 85.

This pattern separates a completed pickup experience from the digital tools that lead to it. A retailer can have a strong app score and still lose satisfaction through slow readiness or inaccurate inventory. The useful comparison is therefore a chain of measures: app reliability, inventory availability, readiness time, order accuracy, and pickup ease.

Retail returns are projected to reach $849.9 billion in 2025

The 2025 Retail Returns Landscape from NRF and Happy Returns projects $849.9 billion in retail merchandise returns in 2025. This is a value estimate for the retail industry, not a count of returned products and not a retailer's expected profit loss.

Returns should be treated as a second financial flow alongside sales. The gross sale can appear healthy while reverse logistics, inspection, markdowns, replacement shipments, and fraud reduce the value that remains. Retailers comparing this figure with their own results need to match the same period, sales scope, return policy, and accounting treatment.

An estimated 19.3% of online sales will be returned

NRF and Happy Returns estimate that 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025. The denominator is online sales, so the figure should not be presented as the return rate for total retail sales, store transactions, or units sold.

The rate is useful for scenario planning. If a retailer generated $100,000 in online gross sales and the industry estimate were used only as a planning benchmark, the implied returned value would be $19,300. That is not a forecast of the retailer's actual returns. The retailer should replace the benchmark with its own return rate by category, channel, customer segment, and reason for return.

Eighty-two percent of consumers say free returns matter when shopping online

The NRF returns research reports that 82% of consumers say free returns are an important consideration when shopping online. The wording matters: this is a reported consideration, not proof that free returns always win a purchase or that every shopper rejects a paid return.

The operational tradeoff is visible in the pairing of this finding with the return-rate estimate. Removing all friction may support conversion but can increase the cost of reverse logistics. A good policy analysis compares conversion, margin after returns, repeat purchase, fraud, and customer support rather than tracking return volume alone.

Nine percent of all returns are estimated to be fraudulent

The NRF and Happy Returns report estimates that 9% of all returns are fraudulent. The denominator is all returns in the report's research, not online sales and not total retail transactions. Separately, 45% of shoppers say it is acceptable to bend the rules when returning items.

Those figures describe two different risks. The 9% estimate describes the reported share of returns considered fraudulent. The 45% response describes consumer attitudes toward bending return rules. Neither number tells an individual retailer how much fraud it has, so internal controls still need return reason codes, serial or SKU checks, refund timing, exception rates, and post-return inspection results.

The 2026 ACSI benchmarks are based on 31,293 completed customer surveys

The ACSI 2026 retail and consumer shipping study is based on 31,293 completed surveys. ACSI says customers were chosen at random and contacted by email between January 2025 and December 2025. The report was released in January 2026, so the study year and the data collection period should be stated separately.

This is why the ACSI figures should be described as survey benchmarks rather than a real-time 2026 operational reading. The large sample supports comparisons across the study's measured categories, but it does not remove the need to check the sample, question wording, response scale, and collection dates before comparing it with a local survey.

A useful retail dashboard needs sales, channel share, experience, and returns in separate rows

The strongest reading of these sources is a comparison framework, not one blended retail score. A retailer can use the published figures as context and then replace the national benchmarks with its own observed data.

Using the Census Q1 2026 figures, e-commerce share is $326.7 billion divided by $1,929.0 billion, or approximately 16.9%. Using the published adjusted growth rates, the e-commerce growth gap is 9.8% minus 3.9%, or 5.9 percentage points. These calculations are useful because they preserve the source denominators instead of turning separate measures into a vague claim that retail is simply growing.

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report - Q1 2026 adjusted and unadjusted e-commerce and total retail estimates, growth rates, margins of error, and e-commerce share.
• NRF 2026 annual retail sales forecast - 4.4% forecast growth and $5.6 trillion forecast sales.
• NRF 2026 forecast press release - forecast method, core retail exclusions, nominal basis, and comparison with the 3.6% ten-year average.
• ACSI Retail and Consumer Shipping Study 2026 - retail format satisfaction scores, experience benchmarks, and survey methodology.
• NRF 2025 Retail Returns Landscape - projected return value, online return rate, free-return preference, return fraud estimate, and consumer attitudes.